the bradley effect, white people, and barak obama
The term Bradley effect or Wilder effect refers to a phenomenon which has led to inaccurate voter opinion polls in some American political campaigns between a white candidate and a non-white candidate. Specifically, there have been instances in which statistically significant numbers of white voters tell pollsters in advance of an election that they are either genuinely undecided, or likely to vote for the non-white candidate, but those voters exhibit a different behavior when actually casting their ballots. White voters who said that they were undecided break in statistically large numbers toward the white candidate, and many of the white voters who said that they were likely to vote for the non-white candidate ultimately cast their ballot for the white candidate. This reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well.
There is seriously nothing new under the sun. I have been telling people since last year that Obama will never garner the White suport necessary to gain the Democratic nomination. Not because of anything regarding policy or experience, but because of the giant Black elephant in the room that 70% of our population HATES talking about.
It’s extremely simple, so pay attention. Pollsters go out and conduct interviews and take voter samples in places like Whitebread, New Hampshire. Now Whitebread, NH has a minority population of .01% so inevitably anyone polled will be as White as White can possibly be. Since it’s 2008, and it’s no longer socially-acceptable to say “no ma’am, i’m not gonna eva vote for a nigger,” these people want to appear as non-biased as possible to their peers and the pollsters. So when they’re asked, they’ll say “well of course, we’ll vote for Obama-we love Tiger Woods and Blues Music”
But man…it sure is quiet and private inside of that voting booth.
The only thing you can bring with you to vote are your biases–and the best part is nobody has to know who you voted for!
Are you really suprised a Black guy didn’t win in a damn near 100% White State? Pssshaw.
I heard someone say that if it came down to Obama and whichever Republican they nominate, then there will be a flood of Blacks storming the voting booths to put one of their own in the White House. This is half-logic. While there may be an uptick in Black participation due to Barak, we are only 13% of the population. Yes, 13%. Think about how many White people would–simply in attempt to PREVENT a Black president–have a renewed interest in voting all of a sudden. White people account for 70% of the population. Do the math: Lets say 1% of the Black population…. 390,000…people decide to vote for Obama all of a sudden. Then 1% of Whites decide to vote for anyone BUT Obama…2.1 Million people.
Good Luck Bro!
January 10th, 2008 at 6:12 pm
This is a great post. Political correctness sent racism undercover but didn’t cure it. As a matter of fact I think that PC and other feel good crap only promotes things it’s pretending to fight. Only few people vote on merit;majority votes on looks, religion, race, sex, etc. I don’t see how Obama can win this election. I don’t see how he can truly think that he can. Nice try anyway.
January 11th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
exactly. i think too many people have let political correctness fool them into thinking that biases went away.
January 21st, 2008 at 3:30 pm
It’s Barack, and I’m totally voting for him.
January 30th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
Mr. Shonuff. What? You talk from the point that ALL black people are gonna vote for Obama because he’s black. Sadly, you might be right. A black customer in my office said to another, assumed to be, black person that she is going to vote for Obama because “it’s looking like the only chance to get one of “us” in there (the white house)”. True story dude! How is this mind set any different from what you are complaining about with this “white vote” stuff. We’re all American, we need to truly reconcile! Now you are saying it’s hard for him to win because of the lack of the “white vote”. Screw the white vote! I hope he won’t win because of so many other reasons. Thanks for the forum!
February 8th, 2008 at 10:02 am
Well, it turns out that Obama is holding his own. Don’t write off all the white people yet! Just take a look at Kansas … where LOTS of white people live … they voted for Obama THREE to one over Clinton.
February 8th, 2008 at 4:47 pm
@ Waldo
Good point. It’s SO EASY to write off all White people though, excuse my hastiness. I can only imagine that the idea of a woman president is more appalling to people than that of a Black man for some people. Maybe the gender card is a stronger factor than i anticipated.
February 19th, 2008 at 11:09 am
This is exactly what’s wrong with black people today….the evidence of a slave mentality. Stop being so negative and doubtful. Obama has an excellent chance of winning…as a matter of fact, he IS winning. He has many, many white votes. Drop the chains of slavery once and for all (from your mind).
February 25th, 2008 at 11:39 am
@ jennifer
No.
Furthermore, ‘chains of slavery’ is a weak cliche and an outmolded idea. Drop the 80s catch phrases and try to actually understand my point. Or not. I don’t care.
May 5th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
Obama has a very good chance of winning, in fact like the F said he is winning. The problem he is going to have is withstanding the constant trickery by those like Shawn Hannity and Rush. They siad nothing about Obamma until they realize that he could win the nomination. They have been firing on Hillary for three years now in hope to stop her and she still may when. For the past few months they have been firing on Obamma and he is beating her at the moment. They seem to have stop firing on Hillary and is concentratinig on stoping Obamma. The difference is the only thing they have is Rev. Wright and the guy that bomb the police station 30 years ago. The point is they are using what Wright siad to scare or embarrass white people from voting for him. That within itself is racism. Every now and then they will throw in ( he went to the million man march with Farrahkan) They are using this to tweek what is known by them. There is still alot of racism in America. They talk about bring America together and patriotism but what they are really doing is keeping americans apart. They are in a since making Wrights speech true. It to bad Obamma could not say in public that what Wright said is, he just chose the wrong way to say it. If we stop listening to all the negative non-important news stories and people who are out just for the hype and not the truth we can have serious debates about their plans for the country so we can decide who to vote for by their political views.
May 7th, 2008 at 7:25 am
Black people make up 13 percent of the vote In the National election. White people with any brains are not going to vote for Obama. If you listen to this phony anytime he has to talk without a written speech he stutters all over himself. People will tell you that this is a sign of weakness and when sitting down with our enemies as Obama likes to say they will EAT HIM ALIVE when he starts that garbage. This guy is a fool and people should be calling for him to drop out
October 7th, 2008 at 6:59 am
May be the blacks should realize that it was the democrats that voted to keep them slaves back in those days,The republicans were the ones to free them. But of course they couldn`t read then and only believed what they heard..and they are doing it again,now.IDIOTS!!!!!!!
November 12th, 2008 at 9:12 pm
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